Neueste Heute 15.06.2024 14.06.2024
A Second-Quarter Recession This Year Looks Increasingly Likely
07.06.2024, 04:00 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - A Second-Quarter Recession This Year Looks Increasingly Likely Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, As I watch the evolution of consumer spending, housing starts, new home sales, and GDPNow trends, it appears the economy has peaked. Warning: I tend to be early. GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed as of 2024-06-03. Chart by Mish The GDPNow forecast...
Why The Fed Will Pull The First Cut To July From September
06.06.2024, 23:47 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Why The Fed Will Pull The First Cut To July From September By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Revisiting Our Rate Outlook As the 10-year Treasury trades near the low end of our current range of 4.3% to 4.5% and we digest jobs data and prepare for the Fed, it seems like a good time to revisit and restate our outlook for rates. Political Reaction to...
Services ISM Unexpectedly Surges Out Of Contraction, Prints At 53.8, Above All Estimates
05.06.2024, 16:24 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Services ISM Unexpectedly Surges Out Of Contraction, Prints At 53.8, Above All Estimates After the Manufacturing ISM unexpectedly tumbled to the lowest level since February (led by a collapse in New Orders which tumbled at the fastest rate since Dec 2023), markets were expecting today's Services ISM to come in well below estimates and to be generally...
Futures Gain With Fresh S&P All-Time High Less Than 1% Away
05.06.2024, 14:11 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Futures Gain With Fresh S&P All-Time High Less Than 1% Away US equity futures edged higher and were again on pace to reclaim all time highs (which again is less than 1% away away) on expectations that a slew of labor-market readings this week may support the Federal Reserve’s policy easing. As of 7:40am ET, S&P futures rose 0.25% and were at session...
The Apartment Construction Boom Ends, Major Economic Impact Ahead
05.06.2024, 01:30 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - The Apartment Construction Boom Ends, Major Economic Impact Ahead By Mish Shedlock of Mishtalk Interest rates are too high for many projects to start. Some started projects are in trouble. Let’s discuss the ramifications. The Wall Street Journal reports Developers Sit on Empty Lots After Historic Apartment Boom During the biggest apartment construction...
Stocks Love ISM, But Payrolls Is Now Bad For Bonds
04.06.2024, 22:20 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Stocks Love ISM, But Payrolls Is Now Bad For Bonds By Simon White, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist Bond yields typically rise after the major data releases of payrolls, ISM and CPI, but in recent years they have risen more after payrolls. Stocks display less bias than bonds after data releases, except after the ISM, which has been consistently...
Bonds & Bitcoin Bid (But Not Stocks) As 'Bad' News Jolts Rate-Cut Hopes Back To Life
04.06.2024, 22:20 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Bonds & Bitcoin Bid (But Not Stocks) As 'Bad' News Jolts Rate-Cut Hopes Back To Life Weak labor market data (JOLTS big miss) and mixed Orders (Manufacturing beat, Durables miss) sent 'hard' data' to its weakest since the start of the year.. Source: Bloomberg ...and that 'bad' news was enough to spark another dovish leg higher in rate-cut expectations...
US Futures Slide As Oil Extends Plunge, India Stocks Tumble
04.06.2024, 14:15 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - US Futures Slide As Oil Extends Plunge, India Stocks Tumble US stock futures are lower with tech and small-caps underperforming as oil extends its recent rout, bond yields are slightly lower and the USD catches a bid. As of 7:45am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.4%, as investors weigh concerns about America’s economic health against optimism...
Stocks Slide, Bonds Bid As Crude Crumbles
03.06.2024, 22:06 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Stocks Slide, Bonds Bid As Crude Crumbles After a promising start to the overnight session, which saw both Asia and Europe perk up to start the new month alongside a furious surge in GameStop on the latest meme stonk shenanigans by Roaring Kitty, the mood deteriorated rapidly, and after a very ugly, and quite stagflationary Mfg ISM print, which printed...
Is The Economy Starting To Look More Recessionary?
03.06.2024, 19:01 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Is The Economy Starting To Look More Recessionary? Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, The manufacturing ISM slipped lower again in May, and came in below expectations. Yields have decided to ignore the more upbeat message from the earlier PMI reading - which beat the consensus and remains above 50 – and are lower across the curve...
Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Blackout Period Begins
03.06.2024, 18:20 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Blackout Period Begins It's another payrolls week with consensus (+190k) expecting job gains to pick up from last month's +175k number with unemployment widely expected to stay at 3.9%. As DB's Jim Reid writres this morning, the bank's economists think the risks are biased to it rounding down a tenth rather...
ISM Manufacturing Survey Signals Further Stagflation: Growth Slows, Prices Rise
03.06.2024, 18:20 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - ISM Manufacturing Survey Signals Further Stagflation: Growth Slows, Prices Rise With 'hard' data plunging in May, it is surprising that S&P Global's flash survey of Manufacturing sentiment showed an uptick. Today we get the final print, with many asking will it catch down to ISM's drop.. and will the ISM drop extend... Sure enough - despite the plunge...
If CEOs Are Right, Things Can Only Get Better For US Earnings' But...
23.05.2024, 21:05 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - If CEOs Are Right, Things Can Only Get Better For US Earnings' But... Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, After Nvidia’s earnings beat on Wednesday, rising CEO confidence points to a general increase in US earnings growth. How long it lasts, though, depends on how much more the economic cycle has left in the tank. You may have heard...
Red Or Blue, Rich Or Poor — Recessions Don't Care
23.05.2024, 15:27 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Red Or Blue, Rich Or Poor — Recessions Don't Care Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, Political affiliation and wealth, it’s speculated, are making a recession look more likely than it really is by introducing systematic bias into the economic data. But this is a distraction. For the data that matters most in gauging the likelihood...
Welcome To LaLa Land As Market Jettisons Tail Risks
16.05.2024, 14:13 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Welcome To LaLa Land As Market Jettisons Tail Risks By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst The economy is signaling a more volatile, potentially recessionary period. Markets, however, aren’t paying attention. Not only are the twin tail risks of a downturn or resurgent inflation being ignored, but a near-impossible “immaculate...
'Good News Is Bad News' Is The Worst News For Stocks
14.05.2024, 18:40 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - 'Good News Is Bad News' Is The Worst News For Stocks Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, We’re back in a “bad news is good news” regime for stocks, where weak economic data prompts higher prices. That’s typically a supportive backdrop for equities, but investors should be alert for when stocks fail to rally on good news as this...
"The US Economic Picture Appears To Be Softening"
10.05.2024, 16:20 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - "The US Economic Picture Appears To Be Softening" By Rabobank The Bank of England left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% yesterday, but the clear signal from the record of votes, and Governor Bailey, is that cuts aren’t far away. This time around the vote split 7-2 in favour of holding (previously 8-1), with arch-dove Dhingra being joined by former...
We Need To Talk About Recession Risk Again
09.05.2024, 18:02 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - We Need To Talk About Recession Risk Again Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, It’s time once more to increase vigilance for a US recession. Soft, survey data is starting to deteriorate, while hard data is already fragile. Expectations of a downturn are currently low, but they could quickly swing higher. Stocks – which experience...
There Is Nothing Exceptional About US "Exceptionalism"
06.05.2024, 03:00 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - There Is Nothing Exceptional About US "Exceptionalism" By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities On Friday, after the jobs report, we heard a lot of chatter about “Goldilocks.” While we wrote NFP – Great for Markets, we caveated that with – for now. Normally we would agree that there is a “transition” period from “everything is great,” to...
Futures Gain Boosted By Apple's Blowout Buyback, Dollar Drops Ahead Of Payrolls
03.05.2024, 16:55 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Futures Gain Boosted By Apple's Blowout Buyback, Dollar Drops Ahead Of Payrolls US stock futures pointed to further strength on Wall Street ahead of the April jobs report after solid earnings and a record buyback announcement from Apple As of 8:00am, S&P futures rise 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.6% thanks to a 6% surge in Apple in premarket...
ISM Services Survey Slumps In April - First Contraction Since 2022 But Prices Are Accelerating
03.05.2024, 16:55 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - ISM Services Survey Slumps In April - First Contraction Since 2022 But Prices Are Accelerating After the disappointing Manufacturing survey data, the signals from the Services side are not great either - even as 'hard' data has improved. S&P Global's Services PMI dropped to a five month low at 51.3 (better than the expected/flash at 50.9, but still...
More Stagflation Signals As Manufacturing Surveys Show Soaring Prices, Orders Tumble
01.05.2024, 16:10 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - More Stagflation Signals As Manufacturing Surveys Show Soaring Prices, Orders Tumble While 'hard' data has been improving recently (albeit then downwardly revised a month later), it is the 'soft' survey data that has collapsed amid Bidenomics. Source: Bloomberg And this morning continued that trend as S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI (survey) fell...
Future Slide In Damp Start To New Month As Fed Decision Looms
01.05.2024, 14:13 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Future Slide In Damp Start To New Month As Fed Decision Looms US equities were set for a second day of losses, as investors weighed disappointing tech earnings and braced for today's Quarterly Refunding Announcement and Fed rate decision and Powell press conference where the Fed chair is expected to signal a delay to rate cuts. S&P 500 futures slid 0...
Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: Fed, Treasury Refunding, Jobs, JOLTS, ISM And Tons Of Earnings
29.04.2024, 16:40 Uhr. ZeroHedge News - https: - Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: Fed, Treasury Refunding, Jobs, JOLTS, ISM And Tons Of Earnings As DB's Jim Reid notes, with just two days left in a rollercoaster April for markets - and FX - last week actually saw the best week for the S&P 500 (+2.67%) and NASDAQ (+4.23%) since November, following several weeks of declines, as earnings gave markets...